Michele Di Maio , Valerio Leone Sciabolazza , Vasco Molini (2019), “Migration in Libya: a spatial network analysis. ” World Bank Working Paper Series [forthcoming]

This paper provides the first systematic analysis of migration to, within, and from Libya. Data used in the analysis are from the Displacement Tracking Matrix dataset (DTM) of the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Using this unique source of data, we combine several techniques to analyze various dimensions of migration in Libya. First, we provide a detailed description of the demographic characteristics and national composition of the migrant populations in Libya. Next, we discuss the determinants of migration flows within Libya. We establish that migration in Libya can be characterized as forced migration because conflict intensity is the main determinant of relocation decision across provinces. Finally, we describe migrants’ movements from, to, and within Libya by combining methodologies from spatial statistics and network analysis. We describe the direction, composition, and evolution of international migration flows passing through Libya, identify the network of human corridors connecting Libyan provinces, and describe the mechanisms of location selection by migrants within Libya by identifying hotspots and cluster provinces. Finally, we complement our analysis on international migration in Libya by mapping the spatial distribution of returnees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) across Libyan provinces.